Ahmad Zia Saraj, former head of Afghanistan's NDS, revealed that in early 2021, he warned his Pakistani counterpart that if the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, the relationship between Islamabad and the group would not last more than a year.

Commenting on the recent strains between the Taliban and Pakistan, Saraj remarked that several factors point to the deterioration of ties between the two sides.

Since the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan has witnessed an unprecedented rise in insecurity, and its relations with the Taliban have become increasingly tense. Over the past three years, the Taliban have frequently clashed with Pakistani border forces. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of providing refuge to opposition groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and aiding their attacks on Pakistani interests.

In a recent claim, a former Pakistani envoy to Afghanistan alleged that the Taliban had requested financial assistance from Islamabad to manage the TTP.

General Faiz Hameed, the former ISI chief, was the first foreign official to visit Kabul after the Taliban’s return to power. His public appearance at the Serena Hotel in Kabul has been widely discussed in recent years. However, current Pakistani officials contend that Islamabad is now suffering the consequences of the errors made by former Prime Minister Imran Khan and former military officials, including Hameed.

Saraj, who was the last head of Afghanistan's NDS before the fall of the previous government, stated in a post on X (formerly Twitter): “In my final official meeting with ISI Chief General Faiz Hameed in early 2021 in Islamabad, I acknowledged that despite all of Pakistan’s investments in the Taliban, their friendship would not last more than a year once the Taliban took power.”

Saraj also highlighted the historical reasons for the collapse of Afghan governments, pointing to economic dependency, reliance on foreign aid, supply routes often used against Afghanistan, border disputes, territorial conflicts, and the clash of internal and external interests as factors that have repeatedly led to political breakdowns in the country.

He concluded by noting that international developments will continue to play a crucial role, predicting that “in the not-too-distant future, we will witness further failures and collapses.”